Monday, July 17, 2006

Quo vadis Israel?

The current outbreak of violence demonstrates an extremely problematic similarity to the position of the Lebanese government and the Palestinian authority with respect to Israel. Both have two heads which contradict each other; one acts in a 'stately' way, meaning in a political framework and relatively moderately, the other considers itself free to act as it wishes. It is willing to use terror against civilians, engages a racist rhetoric and openly demands the elimination of Israel. This double game is one of the reasons it's so hard to reach a tenable agreement between Israel and its neighbours.

Is there still an influence of the moderate Arabic world? Can Europe have any influence? What about the U.S.? Mainly silence at the moment, when we neglect the statement of the G8 states and some diplomatic actions. Are we heading to war?
It is very questionable if violence can be reasonably answered with counterviolence. On the other no state wants to be open to blackmail. But who has to take the first step towards the opponent? Normally the aggressor. In my opinion this would be Lebanon.
But with the ongoing spiral of force Israel will not gain many friends in the Arabic world. It could lose sight of a goal worth fighting for. The situation is complex enough. Maybe ceasefire and start thinking wouldn't be the worst at the moment.


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